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Google vs. ChatGPT: Who’s Really Winning… And Why It Matters for Your Business (Thinks Out Loud Episode 451)

MidJourney generated image of two men wearing t-shirts labeled Google and ChatGPT engaged in an arm wrestling match to illustrate the idea of who's winning in the AI space between Google and ChatGPT

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With all of the discussion around ChatGPT, generative AI, and large language models, you’d think that OpenAI’s tools — or those from Perplexity or Anthropic — are crushing Google. It would be easy to assume that search is dead. Here’s the thing, though: The numbers don’t back that up. If anything, Google’s position over the last few months has gotten stronger, not weaker.

That’s great, right? If Google’s winning, then you just need to keep doing what you’re doing and business will keep pouring in from Google’s paid and organic search, right?

Well, no.

In fact, Google winning in the marketplace has as many potential downsides for your business as Google losing. Why is that so? What happens if Google beats ChatGPT in the marketplace? And why does that matter for your business? That’s what this episode of the Thinks Out Loud podcast is all about.

Want to learn more? Here are the show notes for you…

Google vs. ChatGPT: Who’s Really Winning… And Why It Matters for Your Business (Thinks Out Loud Episode 451) — Headlines and Show Notes

Show Notes and Links

You might also enjoy this webinar I recently participated in with Miles Partnership that looked at "The Power of Generative AI and ChatGPT: What It Means for Tourism & Hospitality" here:

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Recorded using a Shure SM7B Vocal Dynamic Microphone and a Focusrite Scarlett 4i4 (3rd Gen) USB Audio Interface into Logic Pro X for the Mac.

Running time: 16m 58s

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Transcript: Google vs. ChatGPT: Who’s Really Winning… And Why It Matters for Your Business

I’ve been warning people for months that Google could face serious challenges. Those include:

  1. Customers shifting to AI for search
  2. Customers shifting to SOCIAL (such as TikTok) for “search”
  3. Adverse antitrust rulings against them that force them to substantially change their business
  4. Privacy regulations affecting their products and overall business

There’s a new one on the horizon where an education technology company called Chegg is suing Google using a novel argument. According to TechCrunch:

In the suit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, Chegg accuses Google of unfair competition — specifically reciprocal dealing, monopoly maintenance, and unjust enrichment. Google, Chegg claims, forces companies to supply their content in order to be included in Google Search, unfairly exercising its monopoly power in search to reap the benefits of third-party IP.

Wild.

My concern over the last few years has been that any struggle Google faces could also hurt your business. After all, Google is usually the top driver of traffic and revenue online for many businesses.

As far back as 2020, we ran an episode called How To Run Your Business As If Google Didn’t Exist.

So, is Google in trouble? Are they doomed?

Not… really? In fact, Google is winning.

But that doesn’t mean that you should put all your eggs in the Google basket. In fact, I’d still argue there’s a big risk for you here. What is that risk? And what should you do about it?

This is episode 451 of Thinks Out Loud. We’re talking about Google vs. ChatGPT: Who’s Really Winning? (And Why It Matters to You). Let’s dive in.

If you’re like most businesses, a lot of your traffic and revenue comes from Google. So, anything that hurts their business has the potential to hurt yours, too. That’s not good.

One of the biggest threats to Google is how much of its revenues and profits come from search ads. Its 2024 annual report shows that 54% of Google’s earnings last year came from search. Almost 73% of revenues and $33 billion in profits came from its (primarily ad-driven) services. The company as a whole achieved almost $31 billion in total profits. $33 billion from services, $2 billion from Google Cloud and a $3.9 billion loss from its other activities. In simple terms, services — of which search is the majority share — delivered more than 100% of its total profits.

My long-standing concern is that customers could switch to ChatGPT or Claude or Perplexity easily significantly damaging Google’s business — and yours. All customers would have to do is type a different URL or open a different app and Google could take a 5%, 10% or 20% hit to its business.

That would be bad for you, too.

Except that’s not what’s happening. Not even a little.

ChatGPT is woefully far from knocking Google off. While its growth is staggering, it’s hardly challenging Google’s dominance. According to The Information:

Paid subscribers to ChatGPT nearly tripled to 15.5 million last year from 5.8 million a year earlier, OpenAI recently told some shareholders, despite competition from chatbots made by Google, Anthropic and Meta Platforms.
Based on what OpenAI charges for the chatbot subscriptions, the increase means ChatGPT was likely generating at least $4 billion in annualized revenue around the end of last year

SEMrush data shows that OpenAI.com got roughly 1.5 billion visits in January. And 15.5 million paid subscribers is pretty good, especially given its growth rate. $4 billion in annualized revenue is nothing to sneeze at either. Seriously.

Now, let’s look at Google’s numbers.

Again, according to SEMRush, Google got almost 140 billion visits in January. And their annual report shows that they had $96 billion in revenue in Q4 and $350 billion revenue in 2024 as a whole.

That would more, then, wouldn’t it. In very rough numbers, Google is 100x larger than ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, after Google, is by far the biggest LLM company out there.

OK, you might say, maybe ChatGPT’s growth is stealing small amounts of share from Google that haven’t turned up in larger terms yet. It’s a good theory — and one worth watching longer term. Let’s check the numbers, shall we?

According to Datos, ChatGPT’s average number of sessions per user in 2024 grew from 0.43 to 1.27. Meanwhile Google’s average number of sessions per user ALSO GREW… from 11.47 to 14.12.

I’ll keep watching those numbers. Growth for both has to be coming from somewhere. What I suspect is happening though is what Google’s growth has long been built on: Offering customers more ways to search, more ways to interact with its products, and raising overall digital activity by customers. Yes, its growth is slowing. But that doesn’t mean it has no way to increase those numbers.

Consider this. Apart from search, Google also offers:

  • Chrome
  • Gmail
  • YouTube
  • Google Docs
  • Google Drive
  • Google Maps
  • Android

Over roughly 110 other services for businesses, developers, and regular old people.

ChatGPT simply doesn’t have that level of product distribution. I can’t say it never will. But it’s clearly got a long road to hoe before it’s a serious threat to Google’s business.

Cool, so we can all rest easy and let Google do what it always does, right? Our businesses have nothing to worry about, true?

Um… no.

Google maintaining its share still could be bad for your business. Remember that lawsuit I mentioned at the top of the show? Chegg is seeing real-world business impacts because Google increasingly offers AI Overviews in its results, resulting in fewer clicks to Chegg’s site and a revenue hit for the company.

I bet you’re seeing something similar.

In our earlier discussions of why Google’s loss could hurt you, we also talked about why Google winning could also hurt you. And that’s what we’re seeing in that Chegg lawsuit… as well as plenty of other real-world cases. You don’t need Google to lose for it to affect your business. They just need to drive fewer clicks… and that’s just what we’re seeing. I also suspect that relatively soon, Google’s going to increase its ad load on AI Overviews that could send you more traffic… if you’re willing to pay for it.

As discussed on last week’s episode, “AI, Content, and Revenue: Why Clicks Are Overrated,” you can see fewer clicks while also seeing greater revenue. But you’d sure hate to have to pay for it.

In fact, I’d argue that your job from this day going forward is how you get more business from fewer clicks whether those clicks are free or paid. It’s no longer about ranking or driving traffic from SEO. It’s about getting people to your website and your business and then driving greater connection with those folks.

The average website has a conversion rate somewhere between 0.5% and 5%. That’s true across B2C and B2B, regardless of your business. I realize that’s a wide range; but conversion rate is a complicated topic. Lots of factors go into how you measure conversion rate, so just work with me on this one.

The point is that if you think about conversion solely in terms of people showing up and “purchasing” or filling in a lead gen form, you’re thinking about conversion far too narrowly. And you’re letting your website coast more than it should.

Because if Google’s changes make your clicks and traffic hold steady — or worse, decline — you need your website to work better for your business. And that depends on having better content.

Too often, we tend to think of content marketing in terms of how it helps you rank in search. But it’s so much more than that. Content is your 24x7x365 sales person your 24x7x365 customer service rep. Its job is to connect with your customers and capturing their interest.

Your website is a container for your business’s content. You don’t necessarily need customers to fill out a lead form or put something in your cart — though, of course that would be nice. You need them to learn know more about you. To engage with your content. To want to come back. And, eventually, yes, to buy. Your content’s job is to facilitate each and every step in that process.

That could include getting customers to follow you on social media. It could include getting them to opt into your email newsletter. It could include getting them to share that content with their friends and family and fans and followers. It could include getting them come to an event. It could include getting them to compare your products and services. It should do all of these and more.

These aren’t vanity metrics. They’re indicators of customer interest and intent. We’ve done work with a bunch of companies that show the value of these actions to your business so you can focus on the right ones.

My question today is whether you’re asking your content to do that work. Are you focusing on developing rich, rewarding content that customers look forward to? Or are you taking the output of ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Perplexity, giving it a quick edit, then posting that to your site? Because one of those points to a better future for your business. And the other is a waste of time no matter how inexpensive it was for you to generate.

The big takeaways I’d love for you to remember today is that:

  1. ChatGPT probably has a bright future, but it’s currently running a distant second to Google
  2. Google’s changes could hurt your business even if they win in the marketplace.
  3. Google likely is going to place more ads alongside AI Overviews over time, that could drive up the cost of traffic and customer acquisition for your business.
  4. Your job from this point forward is to get more revenue from the traffic you get, whether it involves clicks or not and whether those clicks are free or not
  5. Your content marketing must be personal, human, and worthwhile to your customers. It’s got to work as your 24x7x365 customer service rep and salesperson. Otherwise, it’s not worth doing.
  6. And we need to broaden our definition of conversion on our websites to measure how well our content is doing its job. Otherwise, we’re wasting our company’s and our customers’ time and money.

Show Wrap-Up and Credits

Now, looking at the clock on the wall, we are out of time for this week.

I’m willing to bet that you might know someone who would benefit from what we’ve talked about today. Are you thinking of someone? Why not send them a link to the episode? Let them know what you think, too.

You can also find the show notes for this episode, episode 451, and an archive of all our past episodes, by going to timpeter.com/podcast. Again, that’s timpeter.com/podcast.

And, of course, be sure to like and subscribe wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

Thanks for listening. This show wouldn’t happen without you. We’ll be back with a new episode next week. Until then, please, be well, be safe, and take care everybody.

Tim Peter is the founder and president of Tim Peter & Associates. You can learn more about our company's strategy and digital marketing consulting services here or about Tim here.

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