The graying of Facebook: Should you be worried?

“No one goes there anymore. It’s too popular.” – Yogi Berra

While Yogi wasn’t talking about Facebook, he may as well have been. According to research from iStrategy Labs, Facebook is losing its younger audience in favor of old folks. As you might imagine, lots of folks, young and old, have thoughts about what this means. Marshall Kirkpatrick at Read/Write Web says, “It’s not a pretty picture,” while BusinessWeek seems to think it’s no big deal, with the numbers more likely reflecting recent graduations. Meanwhile, Facebook board member and Netscape founder Marc Andreessen doesn’t seem to care, telling investors that Facebook’s revenues will be in the billions within 5 years. Money quote:

“…it was more important at this stage for social sites like Facebook and Twitter to retain and grow their user base and capture market share, rather than worry too much about making lots of money right away” (Emphasis mine).

Since Marc previously provided a roadmap to Internet success – one based both on his own successes as well as observations of the marketplace – it might be worth paying attention to him. But how can Facebook grow its user base while the “cool kids” appear to be disappearing in droves?

I do agree – at least in part – with those who suggest the cause of this shift relates to those “cool kids”: as grown-ups invade their hangouts, kids move on to greener/cooler pastures. Look at MySpace, Friendster and – going “way back” (in Internet terms) – AOL. As these sites grew in popularity, the appeal to younger users – the hip, cool factor – fell. Ironically, these numbers appeared the same week AOL announced it’s launching AOL Instant Messenger as a Facebook app. Given AOL’s past failures, could that be a sign of the times for Facebook? Or is it an indication by the old guard that there’s a new Big Man on Campus (regardless of whether that man is on campus or not)?

How much this matters to you depends a lot on how much your business relies on the people who continue to use Facebook. For example, according to TechCrunch, some “…1 million users posted almost 800,000 status [updates]” during the Michael Jackson memorial service yesterday. That certainly doesn’t sound like a dying service. What it does suggest is that Facebook is a media channel. You should treat it like one and use where it fits in your overall media strategy.

You do have one of those, right?

If the graying of Facebook is everything to your business, then you probably have a larger business issue than the graying of Facebook. Just as with any media channel, use it where it works to connect to your customers. Tie what you’re getting from Facebook back to business results and measure those results frequently. If and when it stops working for your business, make like the kids and move on to greener pastures.

Ultimately, I’m with Stan Schroeder over at Mashable, who puts it simply:

” If you’re an advertiser on Facebook, you should take these changes into account and react accordingly, because your campaign might not be as effective as it was a couple of months ago.”

Of course, shouldn’t you be doing that anyway?

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